Thursday, 30 April 2015

My Actual Mock Draft

Ok. So I've done a few simulated mock drafts. Now, only a few hours before this becomes irrelevant, I'm going to do an actual one. Seven rounds, nine picks and no trades - so immediately wrong given Trent Baalke's draft history.

Round 1, Pick 15: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Round 2, Pick 46: Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

Round 3, Pick 79: Stephone Anthony, ILB, Clemson

Round 4, Pick 126: Za'Darius Smith, DE, Kentucky

Round 4, Pick 132: Tyler Kroft, TE, Rutgers

Round 5,  Pick 151: Markus Golden, OLB, Missouri

Round 6, Pick 190: Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi State

Round 7, Pick 246: Robert Myers, OL, Tennessee State

Round 7, Pick 254: Devante Davis, WR, UNLV


Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Simulated Mock Drafts

It's been a while since I lasted wrote anything on this blog and a lot has since happened in 49er land. Oh and yeah it's draft day. In less than 24 hours the Niners will have made their first pick in the draft, so what better time for some late, late draft content. I may have some more stuff up on later in the day, but for now here are four simulated mock drafts I have done using Fanspeak and the CBS Sports big board.




Here's my thoughts on these drafts for the 49ers. Keep in mind these are run through a simulation, one of which had Jameis Winston going seventh overall, so this is little more than a fun exercise that gives me the opportunity to offer some quick analysis on these prospects.

Draft One - In this scenario the Niners add a pass rusher in Randy Gregory who compares well to Aldon Smith and should immediately improve the defense. D.J Humphries offers competition and a potential future starter on an offensive line that struggled with injuries last year while Sammie Coates is an explosive but raw deep threat with the potential to be a huge asset in the passing game.

The later rounds picks see the 49ers bring in a physical and athletic corner in Eric Rowe who can play safety and a combine standout in Chris Conley who is one the more underrated receivers in the draft. James Sample offers safety depth and Josh Robinson is a bludgeoning downhill runner in a similar mould to Carlos Hyde. Inside linebacker Jeff Luc can also play fullback - worth noting given Bruce Miller's situation - and Hutson Mason is a very accurate passer who will at least be a good camp arm.

Draft Two - My favourite draft of the four. Waynes is a superb cover corner and Devin Smith a magnificent big-play receiver who has the tools to potentially be a number one wideout down the line. Ogbuehi can play tackle and guard, David Cobb is an underrated, chain-moving running back and Tyler Kroft is an athletic tight end who has gone under the radar due to a lack of targets in his final year at Rutgers.

Markus Golden and Cedric Reed would boost the pass rush, Gerod Holliman is a productive safety that needs a lot of development while Shane Carden is an accurate but immobile QB who perhaps lacks the arm strength to be a success.

Draft Three - This won't happen. Amari Cooper is the best receiver in the draft and won't fall to 15 and I don't expect Odighizuwa, who plays the run excellently and can generate pressure as a pass rusher, to fall outside of the first round. P.J Williams is a talented corner with character concerns and Mitch Morse is a tackle that doesn't have the quickness against edge rushers to stay there in the NFL.

The fourth and fifth round sees the Niners commit further to their running mentality with Mike Davis and Jalston Fowler - another potential Miller replacement. Vince Mayle is another big-play receiver who has had issues with drops, James Vaughters is an edge rusher who will have to impress on special teams and Ladarius Gunter a safety expected to go much higher than round seven.

Draft Four - The first round scenario in this final draft seems unlikely. I don't expect DeVante Parker, a player with the ability to make downfield grabs and excel underneath, to fall to 15. Stephone Anthony is an exceptionally athletic inside linebacker who has the length general manager Trent Baalke loves and a player I am a big fan of. I picked Williams and Frank Clark - a pass rusher with off-the-field issues - either side of another good tight end in Jeff Heuerman.

Xaiver Williams is a developmental prospect on the D-line, Sean Hickey is another tackle who projects better at guard. Dominique Brown would give the Niners another power back but one who has had injury issues and Taylor Heinicke is a small-school QB who would only be a camp arm.

Apologies that my analysis is short and listy - if that's a word - but I'd be keen to hear any thoughts on these players even in this short window before the draft.

Friday, 20 March 2015

Despite departures, the sky is not falling in 49er land

If you're interested in astronomy, you may have doing a lot of staring at the sky today trying to catch a glimpse of the solar eclipse and, when you did, you will have noticed that the sky is not falling, which - after listening to a number of pundits dissect the 49ers' offseason - could come as a surprise.

The 49ers have lost a number of players this offseason, departures that have led many to determine that this is a franchise in the midst of a complete rebuild.

It's not difficult to see why people have come to that conclusion, in just one offseason the Niners have lost:

Losses

Jim Harbaugh - The Niners 'mutually' parted company with their head coach at the end of the season amid talk of discord with the front office. Highly respected co-ordinator Vic Fangio was among the members of Harbaugh's coaching staff to depart once Jim Tomsula was appointed as the replacement.

LB Patrick Willis - Willis retired with a year remaining on his contract citing injury concerns.

LB Chris Borland - Joined Willis in calling it quits due to fears over future head trauma.

RB Frank Gore - Joined the Indianapolis Colts in free agency on a three-year, $12million deal.

G Mike Iupati - Joined the Arizona Cardinals on a five-year, $40million deal.

CB Chris Culliver - Joined the Washington Redskins on four-year $32million deal..

CB Perrish Cox - Joined the Tennessee Titans on a three-year $15million deal.

WR Stevie Johnson - Released.

OLB Dan Skuta - Joined the Jacksonville Jaguars on five-year, $20.5million deal.

S Raymond Ventrone - Joined the New England Patriots as an assistant special-teams coach.

And for the sake of balance, here's who they have gained:

Gains

WR Torrey Smith — Signed on a five-year, $40million deal

DT Darnell Dockett — Signed on a two-year, $7.5million deal

WR Jerome Simpson — Signed on a two-year, $1.73million deal

TE Derek Carrier — Re-signed on a three-year, $2.985million deal

S Craig Dahl - Re-signed on a one-year, $1.3million deal

KR Jarryd Hayne — Signed on a three-year, $1.583million deal.

ILB Michael Wilhoite — Signed an exclusive rights free agency tender of $660,000.

DT Tony Jerod-Eddie — Signed on an exclusive rights free agency tender of $585,000.

QB Blaine Gabbert — Re-signed on a two-year, $2million deal.

OT/G Erik Pears — terms unknown.

RB Reggie Bush — terms unknown.

CB Shareece Wright — Signed on a one-year, $4million deal.

CB Chris Cook — Re-signed, terms not yet known.

The headline losses are of course Willis, Borland and Gore. Few expected Willis to call it a day despite his struggles with a two injury, however, it was Borland's decision to hang up the cleats up at the age of just 24 that has dominated the headlines in recent weeks.

Away from the discussions over the handling of concussions in the NFL, Borland's decision to give up the game ahead of a season in which he would have been viewed as Willis' replacement leaves the 49ers with a gaping hole next to NaVorro Bowman at inside linebacker, making the position a priority going into the draft. On the outside, though, the 49ers have decent depth despite losing Dan Skuta to the Jaguars.

Much has also been made of Gore's signing with the Colts but, with the details of his contract now revealed, it is understandable that the Niners elected not to match such an offer for a player who will be 32 when the season starts and does not have the same burst he once did, particularly with Carlos Hyde waiting in the wings to take over the starting running back role after averaging four yards per carry in 2014.

Mike Iupati's departure sees San Francisco lose one of the best run-blocking guards in the league, yet there was never any chance of the 49ers paying the kind of money the Cardinals are for an offensive lineman who has struggled markedly in pass protection, giving up seven sacks last season.

Perrish Cox was overpaid by the Titans following a campaign in which his play tailed off significantly towards the back end of the year, while Chris Culliver got the payday his performances in 2014 merited but was never likely to receive from the 49ers.

The 49ers have made smart business decisions not to bring back many of their free agents. Willis and Borland's retirements had nothing to do with the front office and yet the narrative remains that this a franchise heading for oblivion.

Of course it will be tough for the Niners to overcome the losses they have endured in terms of leadership but the fact is this is a team that still possesses plenty of talent and has been boosted by some decent acquisitions. Torrey Smith finally gives the 49ers a deep threat and is an upgrade on Michael Crabtree - who has yet to find a new home since hitting the open market - and Darnell Dockett should provide some extra pass-rush threat on the defensive line that could lose Justin Smith to retirement.

Reggie Bush figures to be a nice complement to Hyde if he can stay healthy and has previously excelled at catching passes out of the backfield, Erik Pears provides competition for the backup swing tackle role and Shareece Wright can fight it out with Jimmie Ward for the nickel cornerback role.

None of those deals, Smith aside, are going to wow people. But it feels as if, in the national media narrative, that they are not being taken into consideration when discussing the Niners.

Indeed, I've seen comments suggesting the 49ers will be a "legit bad team" in 2015 and that "8-8 may be there ceiling" and to be honest, even with everything that has gone, those remarks are baffling, not least because it is only March.

To be making such statements a month after the Super Bowl is asinine. Should the 49ers struggle, it will at least give the organisation and the fans a handle on Tomsula and his abilities and people will move on. My happiness is not absolutely dependent on the success of my sports teams and I would hope that is the case for most 49er fans.

There is pressure on Tomsula and his staff, there is pressure on Bowman and others to step up and fulfil the leadership roles vacated by Gore and Willis and there is of course a mountain of pressure on general manager Trent Baalke to deliver in the draft.

Despite all the upheaval, though, the 49ers are a team with plenty of promising players on the roster. The dissenting voices may have you believe otherwise, but there is good reason for the faithful to stay hopeful in 2015.

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Borland retirement a reminder of need for frank concussion discussion in NFL

The hits just keep on coming for the 49ers.

Monday brought the news that inside linebacker Chris Borland had retired from the NFL after just one fantastic season in the pros. The announcement leaves the Niners with a gaping hole at inside linebacker, with Borland's retirement following hot on the heels of that of five-time All-Pro Patrick Willis, but it is the reasons behind his decision that are most interesting.

Borland is hanging up the cleats because of concerns over the effects of long-term head trauma, having suffered two concussions prior to being drafted by the 49ers. The issue of head injuries is one the NFL have been reluctant to fully confront for some time and Borland, having done his research, has decided it is not worth the risk.

And, if he truly feels that way, then we can do little more than sit back and commend his move to ensure he enjoys the long and happy life that has sadly been taken away from many former NFL players due to the long-term effects of the severe head injuries suffered in their careers.

Away from all the pathetic, mocking commenters on social media who have chosen to deride Borland for stepping aside and opting to preserve his body after earning a decent amount of money, the greater debate is whether his move will be the harbinger of doom for the NFL.

It is too early to suggest that Borland's actions will lead us down a path where the NFL's talent pool rapidly dwindles by way of prospective players deciding not to pursue a career in pro football and ends in the league as we know it ceasing to exist. However, Borland's retirement can at least be the tipping point for the evolution of the game in terms of how it deals with concussions and other serious head injuries.

Indeed, it is telling that the NFL felt the need to issue a statement in response to Borland's retirement. A 24-year-old calling it quits after year made the league sit up and take notice and, while the NFL's insistence that pro football has "never been safer" is probably true in comparison to how concussions were dealt with in the 80s and 90s, it is clear there is still plenty of progress to be made.

A basic knowledge of the links between head trauma suffered by NFL players and brain disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is not necessary to understand that scenes of an evidently groggy Julian Edelman stumbling to the line of scrimmage in the Super Bowl and rumours of Russell Wilson playing through a concussion in the NFC Championship game are extremely worrying.

The NFL has a concussion protocol in place but it is debatable whether it is being followed fully, particularly in the crunch post-season games. It is time for the league to have a conversation about how a balance can be found between entertaining the fans and properly ensuring player safety, hopefully Borland's retirement can help open the dialogue.

Tuesday, 10 March 2015

Monday March 9, 2015 A.K.A AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Monday March 9, 2015. I awoke on a day off with stuff to do, wondering whether the England cricket team had won  (HA!) and if anything had happened with my beloved 49ers overnight, little did I know what was about to transpire.

There was an annoying rumour about Colin Kaepernick being put on the trade block that appeared at least some legs but was quickly dismissed by the major national beat writers and general manager Trent Baalke.

Baalke's denial unsurprisingly fell on disbelieving ears following the saga surrounding the departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh, but I think, with the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles - the two rumoured suitors for Kaepernick - settled on Jay Cutler and Sam Bradford, there is little credence left to talk of the Niners' starting quarterback going elsewhere.

But rumours of Kaepernick's exit proved to be just the tip of the iceberg on one of the worst days in recent history for 49er fans who, on the back of learning that Frank Gore would not be returning to the team, were soon hit by news of inside linebacker Patrick Willis' retirement.

No-one saw this coming. Willis had been posting pictures of himself working out on social media and looked set to make a return having struggled with a toe injury for much of last season. A supposed 'religious awakening' was reported to have been the primary reason for his decision, but at an emotional press conference on Tuesday, it became clear that Willis is a player who simply does not feel he can perform at the same level going forward.

Chris Borland will likely slot in to take over from Willis and play next to NaVorro Bowman at inside linebacker following a stunning rookie season. Yet the fact 49ers have promising replacements for both Gore and Willis will be cold comfort for fans for whom the duo represented all that was good about the franchise, particularly in the dark times under Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary.

Throughout their time in San Francisco Gore and Willis displayed every quality you want in a leader, they consistently produced at an elite level on the field while displaying remarkable character, professionalism, determination and the respect for the game that all great players possess.

More than anything else it is those leadership qualities that the Niners will find toughest to replace, and they could yet lose more leadership experience should Justin Smith finally decide to call it a career. Smith was rumoured to have done so on Tuesday, but has since come out and insisted he has not made a final decision.

March 9 did not stop with the Willis retirement, though, it did not stop after the Smith rumours and it did not stop after it was pretty much confirmed that offensive lineman Mike Iupati would be leaving for pastures new, although that departure is one few should be crying about.

No March 9 had one last sour cherry to put on top of a frankly dreadful cake, with the news that fullback Bruce Miller had been arrested on domestic violence chargers. After months of bad PR, this was the last thing the 49ers needed, and the organisation has to handle it better than it did the Ray McDonald saga.

Miller is a well-liked veteran in the locker room and has often held the key to the Niners' running game. But, in a week where the 49ers have lost two of their, dare I say it, 'classiest' players, there needs to be a quick suspension handed down to Miller until the matter is resolved.

March 10 was a little better. The 49ers signed a receiver who should help their passing game quite considerably, but its too early to talk about that now. I think we all need some time to recover and regroup from the horror of March 9.

Saturday, 7 March 2015

Dissecting the depth chart: Safeties

2014 depth chart:
FS:  Eric Reid, Craig Dahl,
SS:  Antoine Bethea, LJ McCray


Signed through 2015
Antoine Bethea, Eric Reid, Craig Dahl, LJ McCray

(Sacremento Bee)


Antoine Bethea
16 starts (16 starts), 71 tackles (14 assists), 4 interceptions (71 yards, 1 TD), 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 10 passes defended.

Upgrade.  After many fans lamented the loss of Donte Whitner, now that we have the perspective to look back upon the 2014 season we can clearly see that bringing in Bethea from the Colts was the right decision.
In an otherwise average season for the 49ers, Bethea put together one of the finest seasons from a safety in living memory. Somehow he was passed over for an invitation to the Pro Bowl, even though his predecessor, Donte Whitner himself went on public record to state that Bethea should have not only been invited, but started the Pro Bowl game for the NFC.
Another often overlooked statistic that Bethea has brought to the team, is his record of 112 consecutive starts, which is a league record for a safety.  Having someone who can play a physically and mentally tough position to a high standard, for such a long period of time without losing time through injury, is a huge asset for the 49er defense.  It also further proves Betheas technical ability, as a lot of safeties often fall short in terms of tackling technique and can pick up concussions fairly quickly.  Thankfully, Bethea has continued his streak and with luck, it will carry on into 2015 and beyond.



Eric Reid
15 games (15 starts), 35 tackles (7 assists), 3 interceptions (138 yards), 7 passes defended.

Reid had a solid 2014 campaign, but perhaps not to the levels of his previous years work.  His tackling numbers were halved from ‘13-’14 but the most concerning issue throughout the season was his health.  He missed one start due to a concussion and was close to missing others because of this recurring issue, after suffering three concussions in his first two seasons in the NFL.  They could be occurring due to a fault in his tackling technique or simply be due to bad luck, but whatever the cause, history shows that a player can only sustain so many concussions before they are forced out of the game and it would be a tragedy if a player of Reids ability and potential was forced to cut his career short because of concussions.


Craig Dahl
16 games (1 start), 19 tackles (4 assists), 1 interception (0 yards), 2 passes defended.

Dahl took a paycut to remain as the primary backup safety for the 49ers and spent the majority of the season playing in his special teams roles.  He did see a few snaps on defense and started in place of Eric Reid when the latter was ruled out of playing for a game through concussion.
Notching up an interception against the Cardinals in his only start of the season, Dahl showed at least some level of proficiency in playing on defense, but I would not be entirely comfortable in seeing him start numerous games in 2015 if anything were to happen to Eric Reid.


LJ McCray
14 games (0 starts), 8 tackles (2 assists).

LJ McCray was signed as an undrafted free agent after the culmination of the 2014 NFL draft.  Most assumed that he would be training camp fodder, or enter onto the practice squad at best, but McCray showed enough through camp and preseason for the 49ers to add him to the roster for opening day against the Cowboys.  He saw action primarily on special teams, but did see a handful of snaps in defense throughout the year.  McCray has the size and speed to be a good safety in the league and he has shown flashes of talent to pique the interest, but he is also still incredibly raw.  It may well take him a couple more seasons to get up to speed with the professional game, and to get to a point where he has a legitimate shot at starting, or at least being a primary backup at the position.



Looking ahead

All four safeties are signed for the upcoming season, which is of course a good thing for continuation.  That being said, there is obviously a significant drop in talent from starters down to backups, so it would be prudent of the 49ers to address this situation in the coming months.

Antoine Bethea and Eric Reid give the team the best safety pairing they have had for many years, even better than their more publically acclaimed predecessors, Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson.  Bethea and Reid may deliver less crunching hits, but they actually play the safety positions a lot better than Whitner and Goldson.

Both Craig Dahl and LJ McCray proved in 2014 that they can produce in small amounts, but for differing reasons, may not be able to elevate their game enough in 2015 to be effective replacements for either starter, if the need should arise.  Eric Reid is battling an ongoing concussion issue and although Antoine Bethea holds the record for the most games started for a safety, as he is past the age of 30 now, there is an ever-increasing risk of him picking up more injuries, so the odds of him missing time through injury are also increasing through time.
All of this adds up to a need to address the depth, or rather, the quality of the depth at the safety position.  I would expect the team to take a look at safeties in the middle rounds of the upcoming draft, with the hope of finding a ‘diamond in the rough’ who can prove to be a high quality backup and even push for a starting position as and when Bethea declines, or if Eric Reids concussion issues continue.  Either a quality player who sees his draft stock fall through character issues (similar to Aaron Lynch last year), or perhaps a big cornerback who projects to safety in the NFL.



Photograph reference
Sacremento bee, 'Bethea and Reid', accessed online 7th March 2015 <http://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/ptakeh/picture4075524/ALTERNATES/FREE_960/AP677781048786.jpg >

Thursday, 5 March 2015

Niners active early in free agency

Free agency has not even technically opened yet, and already the 49ers have three new players.

San Francisco started by bringing in Jarryd Hayne - a Rugby League star with the Parramatta Eels in Australia on a three-year futures deal worth only $100,000 in guaranteed money, beating the Detroit Lions to his signature.

Hayne is set to compete for a roster spot as a kick and punt returner and, while he has the physical attributes you desire in an NFL player, it will be a huge challenge for the former Australia international to make the final 53-man roster.

I'm going to try to knock something more detailed up on Hayne in the coming weeks, but let's focus on the Niners' two other free-agent acquisitions so far, who figure to have more of an impact in the 2015 season.

Defensive tackle Darnell Dockett signed a two-year-deal with the 49ers on Thursday, coming over from the Arizona Cardinals after missing the 2014 season due to an ACL injury. Dockett should bring more tenacity and experience up front and, providing his knee holds out, has the ability to be a disruptive force as a pass rusher having put up 40.5 sacks in his long career in the league.

At 33, Dockett will likely only be a short-term contributor, although a potentially outstanding one, and I still think the Niners would be best served bringing in more D-Line help via the draft. Still, Dockett is one of the biggest names the Niners have signed in free agency for some time, and one fans can afford to get excited about.

But fans would be forgiven about the Niners' other new recruit, wide receiver Jerome Simpson.

Simpson has had numerous off-the-field problems and did not play in 2014 after being released by the Minnesota Vikings following a driving offence that involved marijuana. Yet, for all his difficulties, Simpson does have the speed to get downfield and has produced to a decent standard when given consistent playing time.

The former Cincinnati Bengal has officially been signed on a two-year-deal but at this point it would be a surprise for him to make the roster even with the Niners' shaky depth at wideout. Simpson will likely be competing with Quinton Patton at the bottom end of the depth chart and it will be intriguing to see how he performs after being afforded the opportunity to resurrect his career.

In non free-agency news, it has been reported by Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee that outside linebacker Aldon Smith has agreed to a contract restructure. Smith will still receive the $9.75million he was due in 2015, but it is no longer fully guaranteed.

This is essentially Smith gambling on himself to put the off-the-field issues that have hampered his career behind him and perform to the All-Pro standard he displayed in 2012 and earn a bumper new contract when his current one expires at the end of the 2015 season.

Despite missing time in the last two years, Smith's sack number still average out at just over 14 a season. If he even comes close to match that mark in 2015, Smith will receive a hefty payday from the 49ers.