The Mystery of Michael Crabtree

Wide receiver Michael Crabtree has always divided opinion among the 49er faithful. Here Paul Kadwill breaks down his performance in the final year of his contract with San Francisco.

There have been few players in 49er history more enigmatic than Michael Crabtree.

The 2009 first-round pick has been both hero and somewhat of a villain to the faithful fanbase, providing a highlight reel worthy of any primetime TV show in his time with the 49ers, but also plenty of angst with holdouts, pouts and other actions that have left people with plenty of questions as he heads towards free agency at the end of this season.

So, with his initial six-year, $32million contract coming to an end in a few months, how is the Dallas-born Crabtree performing in his audition year, and how does it compare with the rest of his career?

Below is a table outlining the most relevant data from his six years with the Niners. The data is compiled from the first 11 games he played in each year, aside from 2013 when he only played in eight games due to injury.  For comparison, the 2013 statistics have been adjusted to show theoretical data if Crabtree had played 11 games that year.

What the data seems to back up is that 2012 was indeed Crabtree's best year with the 49ers.  He had highs in TDs, lows in drops, the best catch percentage of his career by far and this all culminated in him achieving his best Pro Football Focus passing grade.

The 2013 season saw Crabtree gain his most yardage over the period that we are looking at.  This may be due to the fact that he only played from Week 7 onwards due to an injury, so perhaps teams were more focused on the clear-cut number one receiver Anquan Boldin, thus leaving Crabtree matched up with less talented defensive backs and less double coverage.

Comparing 2011 onwards with pre-2011 data allows us to see that under the Harbaugh regime, Crabtree has been a better performer, who has averaged more receiving, more YAC (Yards After Catch) and more touchdowns. I guess this is hardly surprising given the offense employed by former head coach Mike Singletary and offensive co-ordinator Jimmy Raye.

So, what about his performance so far in 2014?  Has he been woeful and off the radar as parts of the media have claimed? Even the man himself has complained about being "the third option" on many passing plays.

Looking at his 2014 statistics it is easy that he is not actually 'the forgotten man', as he has been targeted 78 times so far. This is the joint second most amount of attempts thrown his way since his NFL career began. His catch percentage and yardage are all there or thereabouts too, and the four touchdowns he has caught stand as his second highest tally in any 11 week stretch of a season that he has played in.

The glaringly obvious difference from 2014 to any other year, though, is the nine passes he has dropped this year. Is this due to the types of balls thrown his way?  Or is he busy thinking about running into space after the catch before he's actually caught it securely?  Maybe its just bad luck? Or perhaps, his growing frustrations in amongst a plethora of decent receivers are impacting his game?

It's hard to be certain, but the facts don't lie. Simply put, Crabrtree is not as safe a pair of hands as he has been in the past.

Whilst there is no denying that Michael Crabtree is a decent wide receiver - and the facts show that he is having just a good a year as he has done in the past - it is also clear that something is different about the former Texas Tech man in 2014.

With a handful of quality, experienced receivers, young talent waiting for opportunities and an offensive system that is not as pass-happy as others in the league, I believe it will be unlikely that we see Crabtree in a Niners uniform next season.  This is underlined further by the fact that he will probably be asking for the money of a top wide receiver but, in my view, does not provide enough value for the 49ers to justify such a contract.

Although it is impossible to know anything that is going on behind the scenes, the issues that are creeping into his play on the field along with a handful of odd remarks to the media - which go against what any of the other receivers are saying publicly - suggest to me that Crabtree has his mind elsewhere.  

Next stop Dallas, 2015?