Where is Justin Smith?

The 49ers' defense has impressed this season despite the absence of a number of key players. However, one veteran has not exactly caught the eye in 2014. Here Paul Kadwill asks the question: where is Justin Smith?

It's a question that some fans have been going onto social media to ask their peers this season, as the 49ers' defensive line has been proficient, sometimes excellent but somewhat unspectacular compared to recent years. In the eyes of many, defensive end Justin Smith is not standing out during games like he has so many times in the past.

Are there any reasons for what we are seeing, or indeed, not seeing?

It's no secret that the 49ers have enjoyed a marked defensive improvement ever since Smith was signed away from the Cincinnati Bengals before the start of the 2008 season.

Justin has arguably been the most dangerous defensive player in the league over the past few seasons, especially since teaming up with outside linebacker and pass-rush specialist Aldon Smith, with both receiving countless hours of media attention because of their standout play.

This, however, has not been the case in 2014, although the spotlight has understandably moved away from the right side of the 49ers' front seven following Aldon Smith's nine-game suspension, which was handed down before the start of the season.

But is the Justin Smith effect still being felt by opposing offenses or has his impact been reduced since his tag-team partner has been absent?  Is age finally catching up with the man known as 'The Cowboy.'

Let's compare the first nine games of the past three seasons to analyse Smith's play and see if there has been any drop-off in his output this season. Although there are many variables that influence these statistics, looking at nine weeks worth of data for each year enables us to get a pretty good feel for how the 35-year-old has been performing.

During 2012 both Justin and Aldon Smith started all nine highlighted games. For the first nine games of 2013, Aldon Smith started only games 1-3 and 9 after voluntarily entering a rehabilitation centre and missing five weeks in between. Therefore just over half of the 2013 games we shall look at were played in by Justin without his defensive partner and has had to do the same for nine games this year.

(Note:  All data and grades are obtained from profootballfocus.com. For an explanation of the PFF grading system, please see here: http://www.profootballfocus.com/about/grading/ )

The first trend that jumps out is the marked decrease in the number of snaps played by Justin Smith over the course of three seasons.  There is a difference of 130 snaps through nine games between 2012 and 2014. Smith's increased age would strike most as the obvious reason for this, however, the fundamental factor behind this drop in playing time is the increase in quality found throughout the depth chart of the defensive line.

The 49ers now have the confidence to be able to insert any defensive lineman into the game at any point and to know that they will do their job.  This is not just a luxury for Vic Fangio, Jim Tomsula and the other coaching staff, but it is also something that Justin himself is taking advantage of, whereby he is happy to sub himself out for a play or two in order to catch his breath without worrying about a drop in the quality of play of the defensive line.

That added strength in depth may very well behind the drop in tackles made by Smith over the years. With an abundance of talent around him now, tackles can come from anywhere along the line, from any linebacking position or indeed, from the secondary. There may well be some reduction due to age, but upon watching film this does not appear evident.

The ability to be able to take a breather and to rely upon teammates is also leading to improvements to Smith's game in other areas.
 
His overall snap and tackle counts may be down but his quarterback pressure statistics for the last two years are noticeably higher than in 2012.

In the 2012 campaign 3% of all plays that Smith was in resulted in some form of quarterback pressure, a number that increased to 6.5% in 2013 and stands at 5% through the first nine games of 2014 despite the significantly lower snap count.

I believe that during 2013 a lot of this improvement was as a result of Aldon Smith temporarily leaving the team. This motivated Justin Smith to take over the responsibility of pressuring the passer on his own whilst his teammate was rehabilitating, leading to monster 2013 statistics. However, such effort was never going to be sustainable.

This year's data also shows an increase on the 2012 figures - although not to the same level as 2013 - when both he and Aldon were playing.

The fact that Smith has put up impressive quarterback pressure numbers despite playing his lowest number of snaps in three years goes a long way to proving that allowing him to take regular rest breaks during games has enabled the veteran to be more effective, a theory that is further supported by his defensive grade for all three years.

Smith's run defense grade for this year is astronomical while his pass-rush grade is also very impressive, although nowhere near that of 2013, when he stepped in and filled some of the void left by Aldon Smith's absence.

It is also important to recognise that many of traits that allow Justin Smith to play in the NFL are intangible. His most prized talent is the ability to occupy two offensive linemen simultaneously, which has been a huge factor in the success of Aldon Smith and other pass rushers on the team. If this ability could be numerically summarised, there is no doubt that Justin Smith would be at the top of the league in this category.

After analysing Justin Smith's performance from 2012 through to Week 10 of the current campaign, I believe the statistics show that, despite the decreasing praise from those in the media, there has NOT been any drop-off in production from Justin and that actually he has improved significantly in many areas

At 35 years of age and with one more season left on his current contract, we may not see 'The Cowboy' perform his heroics for very much longer. From what we have seen so far this year though, he will not be fading away gradually.